A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
